Crypto · $BTC/USD
Bitcoin Enters Midterm Vote Above Its 200-Day Average, Breaking a Pattern Seen in 2014, 2018 and 2022
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Past midterm days found bitcoin well below its long-term trend; this year it sits about 5% above, though analysts warn against reading much into three data points.
By Noris Ortiz ·
Bitcoin went into the 2026 midterm elections trading above its 200-day moving average, a break from the three previous midterm cycles in which the token was well below that long-term trend on voting day. In morning trading on Tuesday, CoinDesk put bitcoin at about $76,990, roughly 5.2% above its 200-day average of about $73,169 [1].
The comparison comes from CoinDesk's Crypto Daybook, which noted that on midterm election days in 2014, 2018 and 2022 bitcoin traded below its 200-day average by about 35%, 9% and 22%, respectively. The publication described those as bear-market years [1]. Cointelegraph also reported that bitcoin fell below earlier yearly lows after each of those three midterm votes, citing a social media post, but said analysts caution against drawing conclusions from the pattern [2].
The 2026 backdrop looks different, according to CoinDesk. It described this year's bear market as "both shallow and front-loaded," with most of the decline coming in January and February, after bitcoin peaked above $126,000 in October 2025 [1]. Martin Lee of DWF Labs told CoinDesk that history favors bitcoin over a 12-month horizon but that traders should expect near-term volatility [1].
Cointelegraph quoted analysts making a similar point from a different angle. One noted that there have not been enough election cycles to establish a reliable pattern, and that exchange-traded fund flows, institutional portfolios and global liquidity now influence prices more than they once did [2]. In other words, the three earlier midterm episodes are a small sample, and the market structure around bitcoin has changed since 2014.
Policy is the other piece of the story. Cointelegraph reported that crypto-aligned groups spent roughly $176 million across more than 100 races this cycle, citing a Reuters report from October 27, and that prediction markets on Kalshi favored Democrats to win both the House and the Senate at the time of its publication [2]. Republicans currently hold 219 House seats and 53 Senate seats, according to the Blockchain Association figures the outlet cited [2].
A change in control could matter for legislation. The Senate failed to advance the crypto market-structure bill known as the CLARITY Act on September 15, in a 49-50 procedural vote that fell short of the 60 votes needed. Democratic Senator Mark Warner cited insufficient safeguards against President Donald Trump profiting from his administration's crypto policies, while Republican sponsors said their final draft included substantial ethics concessions [2]. Analysts told Cointelegraph that a shift in congressional control would likely delay the bill further, and that a Democratic majority could bring more oversight of Trump-linked crypto businesses and regulators [2].
For markets, CoinDesk listed three things that could shape bitcoin's near-term direction: the election outcome, fund flows and Friday's U.S. jobs report [1]. Bitcoin's position above its 200-day average does not predict how those play out, but it does mean the token enters the vote from a stronger technical footing than in 2014, 2018 or 2022. The first test comes as results are counted overnight, followed by the jobs data on Friday.
Sources:
[1] CoinDesk, "Bitcoin is breaking a midterm election pattern going back to 2014: Crypto Daily", November 3, 2026. https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/03/bitcoin-is-breaking-a-midterm-election-pattern-going-back-to-2014
[2] Cointelegraph, "What's at stake for crypto as the US votes in the 2026 midterms?", November 3, 2026. https://cointelegraph.com/news/us-midterms-2026-stake-crypto-election-day
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.