Energy
Brent Heads for Its Steepest Weekly Drop Since 2020 as Midterm Results Spur Hopes of De-Escalation in Iran War
Image: Capt-M via Pixabay
Reuters data show a drop of about 16% for the week, though tanker attacks near Hormuz and doubts about peace talks are limiting the slide.
By Emmanuel Cruz ·
Oil benchmarks are heading for one of their sharpest weekly declines on record after the U.S. midterm elections fed hopes that the war involving Iran could de-escalate, even as a run of tanker attacks in the Gulf kept a floor under prices.
According to Reuters, Brent January futures traded at $97.55 a barrel early on Friday, down 74 cents or 0.8%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures stood at $89.79, also down 73 cents [1]. Reuters said Brent was on track for a weekly decline of about 16%, its largest percentage fall since the start of the Covid-19 pandemic and its largest in absolute terms in LSEG data going back to 1988. WTI was set for a drop of more than 13% [1]. Other outlets measured the slide somewhat differently depending on timing: The National put both benchmarks on course for roughly a 12% weekly loss, with Brent at $99.94 and WTI at $91.72 in early Friday trading in the Gulf [2]. Final settlement prices for Friday's U.S. session were not available in the reports reviewed for this article.
Most of the week's damage was done on Wednesday. The National reported that Brent closed at $94.62, down 8.7%, and WTI at $88.12, down 8.3%, their lowest closes since August 31, after Democrats won control of Congress [2]. Reuters said prices fell about 8% that day on hopes that Republican losses would ease the conflict and allow more Middle East crude to reach the market, and it pointed to signs of an emerging glut, with spot premiums for Middle Eastern benchmarks back at pre-conflict levels [1].
The political reading of the vote is contested. Vice President JD Vance wrote on X that "The reason we lost is the war," according to The National [2]. The same report said President Donald Trump had not decided whether to resume attacks on Iran or pursue an agreement and would consult national security advisers, while Tehran claimed that three more ships had been struck in the Strait of Hormuz [2].
That uncertainty is why the decline has not been steeper. Reuters said attacks on oil-carrying ships are running close to a record pace, according to UKMTO data [1]. Oilprice.com, in a piece republished by Yahoo Finance, cited Reuters reporting of at least five vessel incidents in the Persian Gulf since Sunday and quoted FXPro analyst Alex Kuptsikevich as saying the Republicans' defeat "does not mean that the conflict in the Middle East will not escalate" [3]. ING analysts, the same article said, expect oil to gradually shed its risk premium if there is no further escalation, while KCM Trade's Tim Waterer said crude is likely to stay supported on dips until there is a credible path to safer, cheaper transit through the Gulf [3].
The weekly drop matters beyond energy traders. Lower crude eases pressure on fuel costs and inflation expectations, which central banks are weighing, though Reuters also listed a sharp sell-off in technology stocks among the forces weighing on sentiment this week [1]. Energy shares have felt it directly: Yahoo Finance reported the energy sector fund XLE down about 11% over the week as of Friday's session [4].
What to watch next: any formal movement on U.S.-Iran talks or a decision to resume strikes, further reports of attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandeb strait, and whether the spot-premium collapse Reuters described deepens into a broader supply glut. A diplomatic breakthrough would push on prices in one direction, while an escalation at sea would push them the other way.
Sources:
[1] Reuters (via RTE), "Oil set for sharp weekly drop after US midterms raise hopes of more Mideast crude exports", November 6, 2026. https://www.rte.ie/news/business/2026/1106/1598252-world-oil-prices/
[2] The National, "Oil prices set for weekly drop on Trump's election rout", November 6, 2026. https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/06/oil-prices-set-for-weekly-drop-on-trumps-election-rout/
[3] Oilprice.com (via Yahoo Finance), "Oil Prices Head for 12% Weekly Loss Despite Fresh Tanker Attacks", November 5, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/energy/articles/oil-prices-head-12-weekly-060500517.html
[4] Yahoo Finance, "Stock market today: Nasdaq and S&P 500 rebound, Dow slips to cap bruising week for AI stocks", November 6, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-november-6-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-jobs-report-earnings-135953863.html
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.