Macro
October CPI Due Tuesday Will Have No Yearly Headline Rate, as Economists Expect a 0.3% Monthly Gain
A missing October 2025 data point means the monthly change and core readings carry the weight as traders weigh a possible December Fed hike.
By Emmanuel Cruz ·
The October consumer price index arrives at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, Nov. 10, from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, with an unusual feature: it will not include a 12-month inflation rate for overall prices, Kiplinger reported [1]. The reason is a gap left by last year's government shutdown. The BLS did not collect price data in October 2025, so it has no base month against which to measure this October's yearly change [1]. That puts extra weight on the month-over-month readings and on the core index, which strips out food and energy.
Forecasts for the monthly headline change are clustered around 0.3%. Kiplinger cited a Bloomberg consensus of about 0.29%, with individual forecasts ranging from 0.2% at Barclays to 0.3% at RBC and BMO [1]. Yahoo Finance's market coverage put the consensus at a 0.3% monthly rise, compared with 0.6% in September [2]. Core CPI is expected to rise about 0.2%, with estimates ranging from 0.21% at Wells Fargo to 0.23% at UBS and 0.3% at RBC, according to Kiplinger [1]. Yahoo Finance listed the core consensus at 0.2%, versus 0.3% previously [2].
The September report sets the baseline. Headline CPI rose 3.7% from a year earlier, driven mainly by higher gasoline and fuel prices, while core CPI rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over 12 months, a pace that was firmer than some economists had hoped, Kiplinger said [1]. Without a yearly headline figure for October, analysts are building their own comparisons. BMO estimates that core inflation would rise to about 2.7% on an annual basis using an averaged index, and Kiplinger's David Payne expects core CPI to finish the year at 2.7% [1].
The data matters because the Federal Reserve's next decision is on Wednesday, Dec. 9, and several economists expect another rate increase. Wells Fargo, Barclays and BMO are among those calling for a hike in December, according to Kiplinger [1]. Reuters said the October report may sway whether the Fed hikes at that meeting [3]. Bond markets were already cautious going into the release. Late Monday, Reuters quotes showed the 2-year Treasury yield at 4.575%, the 10-year at 4.880% and the 30-year at 5.270% as of 4:38 p.m. ET [3].
Stocks have also been trading on rate expectations. The S&P 500 rose 2.35% on Monday to 7,549.94, and the 10-year yield ended little changed at 4.864%, Yahoo Finance data showed [2]. A softer-than-expected core reading could support the rebound in risk assets, while a firm one would keep the case for tighter policy in view. Because the report covers October, it will not capture the drop in crude oil prices seen on Monday, when December West Texas Intermediate futures fell 4.14% to $87.07 a barrel [2].
What to watch on Tuesday: whether the monthly headline gain lands near 0.3% or surprises in either direction, whether core holds at the 0.2% forecast or returns to the 0.3% pace of recent months, and how Treasury yields react in the first minutes after the 8:30 a.m. ET release. The yearly core figure will also draw attention given the missing base month. Forecasts are estimates and can differ from the final data.
Sources:
[1] Kiplinger, "October CPI Report: What the Inflation Data Is Expected to Show", November 9, 2026. https://www.kiplinger.com/investing/economy/october-2026-cpi-report-what-to-expect
[2] Yahoo Finance, "Stock market today: Nasdaq surges despite Nvidia stock slide, Dow and S&P 500 rally as AI tech trade rises", November 9, 2026. https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-monday-november-9-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-nvidia-090535419.html
[3] Reuters (via MarketScreener), "TREASURIES-Yields edge up before Tuesday's CPI release", November 9, 2026. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/treasuries-yields-edge-up-before-tuesday-s-cpi-release-ce785fd3d189f627
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.