Macro
October CPI Due Tuesday With Energy in Focus After a September Gasoline Surge and a 10-2 Fed Hold
The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases October consumer prices at 8:30 a.m. ET Tuesday; September's report and the Fed's October split frame what to watch.
By Noris Ortiz ·
The October consumer price index is scheduled for release at 8:30 a.m. ET on Tuesday, November 10, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, putting inflation back at the center of the week after a sharp technology selloff and a shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve [1]. The report will be the first major inflation reading since the Fed left rates unchanged on October 28 with two policymakers wanting to raise them.
The BLS's September report, released October 14, is the baseline. The all-items index rose 0.6% from August on a seasonally adjusted basis, after a 0.4% gain the previous month, and was up 3.7% over 12 months, compared with 3.4% in August [1]. Energy did most of the work. The energy index rose 5.2% in the month and was up 20.4% from a year earlier, and gasoline climbed 9.1% for the month, accounting for more than half of the monthly increase in the headline index [1].
Underlying inflation was calmer but still moving in the wrong direction for those hoping for relief. The index excluding food and energy rose 0.3% in September, the same as in August, and was up 2.6% over 12 months, compared with 2.4% a month earlier [1]. Shelter rose 0.4% for the month after a 0.3% gain in August, and was up 3.2% from a year earlier, while food prices were unchanged in the month and up 2.5% over 12 months [1]. The gap between the headline and core figures shows how much recent inflation has depended on fuel costs rather than broad price pressure.
That distinction matters for the Fed. At its October 28 meeting the Federal Open Market Committee kept the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-3/4 to 4 percent on a 10-2 vote. Lisa D. Cook and Beth M. Hammack dissented, preferring a quarter-point increase; the statement did not give their reasons [2]. The committee said "Inflation remains elevated" and that additional information would help it set the stance needed to bring inflation back to its 2 percent goal in a timely way [2].
Markets have been leaning toward more tightening. Before Friday's jobs report, traders priced roughly a 70% chance of a Fed hike in December, according to CoinDesk, which also reported that economists had expected the report to show about 59,000 to 65,000 new jobs [3]. A single CPI print is unlikely to settle the question, but it can shift how much weight policymakers and traders give to the energy-driven rise in prices versus the core trend.
Several details in Tuesday's release will draw attention. The first is whether energy and gasoline add to prices again or give back part of September's surge, since fuel has been the main swing factor. The second is whether the core index holds at the 0.3% pace of the last two months or moves away from it. The third is shelter, which accelerated in September and is a large, slow-moving component of the index. A softer core reading would ease pressure on the committee, while a firm one would keep the case for a hike in play, and the committee has said additional information will shape its stance [2].
Risk assets have been sensitive to rate expectations as well. GSR's Carlos Guzman, quoted by CoinDesk, described this week's crypto weakness as a pullback in risk appetite amplified by leverage, so inflation data that changes the outlook for rates could carry through to stocks, bonds and digital assets alike [3].
Sources:
[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Consumer Price Index Summary: September 2026" (CPI news release), October 14, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/cpi_10142026.htm
[2] Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, "Federal Reserve issues FOMC statement", October 28, 2026. https://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20261028a.htm
[3] CoinDesk, "Over $1 billion in bullish bets liquidated while ETFs suggest no help in spot market: Crypto Daily", November 6, 2026. https://www.coindesk.com/daybook-us/2026/11/06/over-usd1-billion-in-bullish-bets-liquidated-while-etf-flows-suggest-no-help-in-spot-market
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.