Macro
October Jobs Report Due at 8:30 a.m. ET, With Economists Expecting About 65,000 Jobs After the Tech Selloff
A Reuters poll sees unemployment steady at 4.2% and wage growth slipping below 3% a year, with the Fed's December path in play.
By Noris Ortiz ·
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics is scheduled to publish its October Employment Situation report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, according to the agency's release schedule [1]. The report arrives a day after a technology-led selloff on Wall Street, and it could influence how traders judge the Federal Reserve's next move.
Economists surveyed by Reuters expect about 65,000 jobs were added in October, up from a gain of 29,000 in September, which was held down by a calendar quirk tied to a late Labor Day. Forecasts in the survey ranged from 35,000 to 125,000 [2]. The wide spread suggests the number could surprise in either direction.
The poll sees the unemployment rate holding at 4.2%, with what Reuters described as a high probability that it slips to 4.1%. Average hourly earnings are forecast to rise 0.3% in October after a 0.1% gain in September, which would slow the annual pace of wage growth to 2.9% from 3.0%. That would be the first annual reading below 3% since May 2021, the survey noted [2].
The Federal Reserve left its benchmark overnight rate in a range of 3.75% to 4.00% at its meeting last week, Reuters reported. The same article said economists still expect a rate hike in December, although softer wage pressure could limit how many increases the central bank delivers in 2027 [2]. The October consumer price index report is due next Tuesday, the Reuters story said [2].
Market commentary has tied the jobs data to the Fed outlook. Dow Jones Newswires wrote that a strong payrolls figure could raise the odds of a December rate hike[3]. As of 5:15 a.m. ET, Dow Jones reported that Nasdaq futures were up about 1.8% and S&P 500 futures up 0.6%, while Dow futures were down about 0.55%. The 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.84% and the 30-year was around 5.26% [3].
The setup is unusual because a weak report and a strong one could each cause problems. A figure well above forecasts might push up yields and rate-hike expectations, which tends to weigh on high-valuation technology shares. A very soft figure could revive concern about the labor market, although the Reuters poll noted that payroll gains have averaged about 68,000 a month this year, so a modest number would not be out of line with the recent trend [2].
Several details will matter beyond the headline. The unemployment rate and the wage figure will show whether the labor market is cooling in a way that eases inflation worries. Revisions to September's payrolls will indicate how much of that month's weakness was a calendar effect, as the survey suggests.
What to watch next: the initial market reaction in Treasury yields and futures after 8:30 a.m. ET, whether the wage reading falls below 3% as forecast, and the October inflation data next week, which will feed into the Fed's December decision.
Sources:
[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Schedule of Releases for the Employment Situation", November 6, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/schedule/news_release/empsit.htm
[2] Reuters (via Investing.com), "US job growth expected to pick up in October, with moderation in wage gains", November 6, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-job-growth-expected-to-pick-up-in-october-with-moderation-in-wage-gains-5006475
[3] Dow Jones Newswires via MarketScreener, "Nasdaq Futures Rally After Asian AI Rout as Investors Brace for Jobs Day -- Update", November 6, 2026. https://www.marketscreener.com/news/nasdaq-futures-rally-after-asian-ai-rout-as-investors-brace-for-jobs-day-update-ce785fddd088ff20
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.