Energy
Oil Slides to Its Lowest in Nearly Two Months as Democratic Win and Iran Deal Hopes Outweigh Hormuz Risks
Brent fell through the morning as traders weighed a possible U.S.-Iran settlement, a shift in Congress and a surprise U.S. crude draw.
By Noris Ortiz ·
Crude oil extended its slide on Wednesday, with Brent falling through the morning to its lowest level in almost two months as investors bet on a diplomatic settlement between Washington and Tehran and reassessed U.S. war policy after Democrats won control of Congress. Prices were volatile and differed sharply by the time of day, so the readings below are tied to the time each was taken.
At 9:40 a.m. ET, Brent was down $3.04, or 2.9%, at $100.60 a barrel, its third straight loss, while U.S. benchmark West Texas Intermediate fell $2.86, or 3%, to $93.23, according to Oilprice.com. Both contracts traded higher early before reversing [1]. By 11:15 a.m. ET, the Associated Press reported Brent was down 4.4% at $99.03, and noted that the benchmark has ranged from roughly $70 to $120 a barrel since just before the Iran war began [2]. By 8:58 p.m. UAE time, about 11:58 a.m. ET, The National reported Brent had dropped 8.47% to $94.83 and WTI 7.5% to $88.88, with both benchmarks down more than 15% this week [3].
The political backdrop is a main driver. The National said the Democratic wins in the House and Senate add uncertainty to President Donald Trump's agenda on Iran, and that voters frustrated by high inflation and gasoline prices appear to have influenced the results [3]. Oilprice.com cited analysts who said a Democratic Congress could constrain war funding, though Michelle Brouhard of Kpler noted the new Congress is not seated until January 3, leaving the administration nearly two months to act [1].
Diplomacy is the other half of the story. Trump told the Financial Times that Washington had no immediate plans to strike Iran, saying "We seem to be getting everything we want," according to Oilprice.com. The same report said a senior Iranian official indicated Tehran could reopen the Strait of Hormuz within two days if Washington meets its demands, which include lifting oil sanctions and releasing frozen assets [1]. The National said negotiations have resumed with mediators including Qatar and Pakistan but have produced no clear signal on next steps [3]. It also reported that Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, said those expecting a change in U.S. policy after the midterms were "gravely mistaken," and that Tehran's foreign ministry spokesman warned Washington against further military action [3].
Risks have not disappeared. Washington confirmed limited strikes on Iran's Qeshm island on Monday, and Tehran said it had intercepted drones in the area [3]. Iran's Revolutionary Guard said four tankers were destroyed by mines south of Hormuz, a claim Oilprice.com said has not been independently confirmed [1]. The same article noted that ING sees markets as having increasingly priced in the possibility of further hostilities [1].
Supply and demand data add context. The American Petroleum Institute reported a 5.27 million barrel draw in U.S. crude inventories against an expected build, with official government figures due at 10:30 a.m. ET, Oilprice.com said. It also cited JPMorgan estimates that the global surplus widened to 1.4 million barrels a day in October from 1.1 million in September, that Middle East exports have recovered to about 20.7 million barrels a day from a March low of 9.8 million, and that demand has fallen 3.3 million barrels a day since the war began [1].
Equity markets reflected the shift. In the AP's report, Exxon Mobil was down 3.5% and ConocoPhillips down 4.4% at 11:15 a.m. ET, as the 10-year Treasury yield eased to 4.92% [2]. Lower crude could also ease inflation pressure that has kept central banks cautious, a point analyst Aliasgar Tambawala of Klay Group raised when he said sustained de-escalation could reduce the need for further Federal Reserve tightening [3].
What to watch next: the official U.S. inventory report, any concrete step on Hormuz shipping, and whether mediators in Qatar and Pakistan produce a framework before the new Congress takes office.
Sources:
[1] Oilprice.com, "Brent Falls to $100 as Traders Bet on a U.S.-Iran Deal", November 4, 2026. https://oilprice.com/Latest-Energy-News/World-News/Brent-Falls-to-100-as-Traders-Bet-on-a-US-Iran-Deal.html
[2] Associated Press (via KY3), "US stocks rally, and the Dow soars more than 1,000 points", November 4, 2026. https://www.ky3.com/2026/11/04/stock-futures-rise-after-democrats-take-control-congress/?outputType=amp
[3] The National, "Brent oil slides to $94 on Iran uncertainty after US midterms", November 4, 2026. https://www.thenationalnews.com/business/energy/2026/11/04/brent-oil-slides-to-94-on-iran-uncertainty-after-us-midterms/
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.