Energy
OPEC+ Meets Sunday After Oil Posts 15% October Gain on Hormuz Tanker Attacks
Image: michaelmep via Pixabay
Core producers are expected to hold December output targets steady as Iran reports four tankers ablaze in the strait.
By Noris Ortiz ·
Seven core members of the OPEC+ producer group are set to meet online on Sunday, November 1, to decide December production targets, with oil coming off its strongest monthly rally since July as attacks on shipping in the Strait of Hormuz intensified [1][2].
Brent crude for December delivery settled Friday at $117.64 a barrel, up $2.76, or 2.4%, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude settled at $104.12, up $1.98, according to DTN [1]. Both benchmarks gained about 15% in October and posted a fourth straight weekly rise, DTN reported [1]. U.S. crude futures do not trade over the weekend, so Sunday's meeting and developments in the Gulf will set the tone for the Monday open.
The group meeting on Sunday is made up of Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman [2]. Three sources told Reuters earlier this week that the producers were likely to keep December output targets unchanged, though no final decision had been made, and that attention is turning to negotiations over quotas for 2027 [2]. Gulf members have been raising exports that were disrupted for months by the Iran war, but most are still pumping well below their targets, Reuters reported [2]. That gap means a decision on paper quotas may matter less to the market than how much oil can actually move through the region.
The security picture worsened in the final days of the month. The UK Maritime Trade Operations center counted 43 security incidents in October, 30 of them direct strikes on tankers, DTN reported, citing four commercial tankers reportedly hit by mines or explosive devices near the Omani coast [1]. Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps said four oil tankers caught fire and exploded in the strait while traveling on what it called unauthorized routes, according to Al Jazeera, which did not independently confirm the claim [3].
The two sides offer conflicting accounts of the waterway. U.S. Central Command has said it cleared the main shipping channels, while the Revolutionary Guard disputed that and warned that southern routes remain heavily mined, DTN reported [1]. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned of an "earth-shattering blow" if Iran is attacked again, Al Jazeera reported [3]. President Donald Trump has said the war will be wrapped up soon, according to Al Jazeera [3].
Traders have also been pricing in the possibility of renewed U.S. and Israeli military action against Iran after the U.S. midterm elections on November 3, as the United States builds up forces in the region, including a third carrier strike group, DTN reported [1]. Diplomatic efforts continue in parallel: Qatari mediators arrived in Tehran and Vice President JD Vance outlined terms for direct negotiations, though DTN said those steps had not removed the risk premium in crude prices [1]. A weaker U.S. dollar also supported oil on Friday [1].
For markets, oil above $100 a barrel feeds into fuel costs and inflation expectations, while supporting earnings for producers and refiners. Germany has complained about soaring energy prices caused by the war, Al Jazeera reported [3].
What to watch next: the OPEC+ decision on Sunday and any signal on 2027 quotas, further attacks or mine strikes in the Strait of Hormuz, Tehran's response to U.S. outreach, and how crude trades once futures reopen ahead of Tuesday's midterm vote.
Sources:
[1] DTN, "WTI Up 15% in October on Fears of Iran War Escalation", October 30, 2026. https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/world-policy/article/2026/10/30/wti-15-october-fears-iran-war
[2] Reuters (via Yahoo Finance), "OPEC+ oil producers set to keep output targets steady at Sunday meeting, sources say", October 27, 2026. https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/opec-oil-producers-set-keep-092746921.html
[3] Al Jazeera, "Iran war live: Tehran warns of earth-shattering blow; drones target Riyadh", October 31, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2026/10/31/iran-war-live-oil-tankers-hit-in-hormuz-trump-says-conflict-will-end-soon
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.