Macro
Producer Prices Rise 0.3% in October, Below Forecasts, but the Annual Rate Reaches 6.5%, the Highest Since November 2022
Goods prices led the gain while energy edged lower, and traders kept a December Federal Reserve rate increase firmly in view.
By Noris Ortiz ·
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics said on Friday, Nov. 13, that its producer price index for final demand rose 0.3% in October on a seasonally adjusted basis, with the release arriving at 8:30 a.m. ET [1]. The monthly gain was smaller than the 0.4% forecast cited by Bloomberg, according to Seoul Economic Daily [2]. The 12-month increase was 6.5%, which the agency described as the largest since a 7.4% rise in November 2022 [1].
Final demand goods rose 0.5% on the month and 10.2% from a year earlier, while final demand services rose 0.2%, the fifth straight monthly increase, and are up 5.0% over 12 months [1]. Within goods, the agency pointed to a 3.9% increase in basic organic chemicals, partly offset by a 7.9% decline in diesel fuel [1]. In services, truck transportation of freight rose 3.9%, while trade margins for machinery and vehicle wholesaling fell 4.2% [1].
Energy was a modest drag on the month. Final demand energy prices slipped 0.1% in October, though they remain 37.0% higher than a year ago [1]. Seoul Economic Daily reported that the survey period captured a pullback in crude oil, with the Labor Department showing crude down 10.3% and diesel down 7.9% over the period [2].
The core readings were firmer than the headline might suggest. Final demand excluding foods and energy rose 0.3% on the month and 5.0% on the year, matching expectations according to Seoul Economic Daily [1][2]. A narrower gauge that also strips out trade services, which can swing with wholesale and retail margins, rose 0.5% on the month and 4.9% over 12 months [1].
Why it matters for markets: the report landed days after October consumer prices came in hotter than forecast, and it did little to change the rate outlook. TheStreet reported that markets were pricing a quarter-point Fed increase at the Dec. 8-9 policy meeting, with futures putting the chance of a half-point move above 10% [3]. Seoul Economic Daily, citing the CME FedWatch tool, put the probability of a December increase at 89.4%, with no weight on holding rates unchanged [2]. Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the central bank has more work to do on inflation, TheStreet reported [3].
The headline 6.5% annual rate also reflects a base effect, Seoul Economic Daily noted, meaning that part of the year-over-year jump comes from weak readings dropping out of the comparison rather than from October alone [2]. The agency's own data show how broad the pressure is: both goods and services are running at annual rates of 5% or more [1].
What to watch next: the Fed meeting on Dec. 8-9 is the main event, and further comments from policymakers in the coming weeks will show whether officials treat the cooler monthly headline as a reason to slow down or as noise within a rising trend [3]. Oil prices matter as well, because energy fell in the survey period but remains sharply higher year over year [1]. The next producer price report is scheduled for Dec. 15 at 8:30 a.m. ET [1].
Sources:
[1] U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Producer Price Indexes - October 2026", November 13, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/ppi.pdf
[2] Seoul Economic Daily, "U.S. Producer Prices Rise 0.3% in October, Below Forecast", November 13, 2026. https://en.sedaily.com/world/2026/11/13/us-producer-prices-rise-03-percent-in-october-below-forecast
[3] TheStreet, "Stock Market Today (Nov. 13, 2026)", November 13, 2026. https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-nov-13-2026
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.