Bonds
Treasury 10-Year Yield Rises to 4.96% as Job Openings Hold at 7.5 Million and Refunding Plan Nears
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A steady labor market keeps pressure on long-dated yields ahead of the Treasury's quarterly borrowing announcement.
By Emma Cruz ·
The yield on the benchmark 10-year US Treasury note rose to 4.96% on Wednesday from 4.91% late Monday, the Associated Press reported, after data showed more job openings at the end of September than economists had expected [1]. The move leaves long-term borrowing costs close to the 5% level that investors often watch, just as the Treasury prepares to update its borrowing plans.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics published the figures on Tuesday in its Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, known as JOLTS. Job openings were 7.5 million in September, a rate of 4.5%, which the agency described as little changed. August was revised to 7.2 million. Hires were 5.4 million, a rate of 3.4%, compared with a revised 5.3 million in August. Quits increased to 3.4 million, or 2.1%, from a revised 3.0 million, while layoffs and discharges were 1.6 million, or 1.0%, versus a revised 1.8 million in August [2].
The mix of data matters for bond investors. Rising quits generally signal that workers feel confident about finding other jobs, and low layoffs suggest employers are not cutting staff in large numbers. Neither points to a sharp cooling in demand for labor, which can support the case for higher yields when markets are already focused on inflation and the path of interest rates. The AP linked the increase in the 10-year yield directly to the stronger-than-expected openings figure [1].
The second driver this week is supply. In its August refunding statement, the Treasury said the next quarterly refunding announcement would come on November 4, 2026. That August plan raised about $28.7 billion in new cash from private investors through $125 billion of securities, including a $58 billion 3-year note, a $42 billion 10-year note and a $25 billion 30-year bond. The department also said it planned buybacks of up to $38 billion of off-the-run securities for liquidity support and up to $25 billion in the one-month to two-year range for cash management [3]. Any change in auction sizes or the pace of buybacks in the new announcement could influence how the market prices longer maturities.
The political backdrop adds another layer. Democrats won majorities in both chambers of Congress in Tuesday's midterms, a result the AP said creates a new era of congressional resistance to President Donald Trump. The wire service noted that investors generally prefer divided government because it reduces the risk of sweeping policy changes, and it quoted Stephen Brown of Capital Economics as saying the outcome does not change much for the near-term policy outlook [1].
Elsewhere in the same AP report, Brent crude was up 0.2% at $103.84 a barrel, and the dollar slipped to 158.13 yen from 158.69 [1]. Energy prices that remain above $100 a barrel are a reminder of the inflation risks that have kept bond markets cautious.
What to watch next: the wording and numbers in the Treasury's refunding statement later on Wednesday, whether the 10-year yield moves above or retreats from 4.96%, and the next labor-market releases, which could confirm or challenge the picture from the JOLTS report.
Sources:
[1] Associated Press, "Asian shares and US futures are mixed as Democrats gain majorities in both the US House and Senate" (via KSAT), November 4, 2026. https://www.ksat.com/business/2026/11/04/asian-shares-and-us-futures-are-mixed-as-democrats-gain-majorities-in-both-the-us-house-and-senate/
[2] US Bureau of Labor Statistics, "Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - September 2026", November 3, 2026. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/jolts.nr0.htm
[3] US Department of the Treasury, "Quarterly Refunding Statement of Deputy Assistant Secretary for Federal Finance Brian Smith", August 5, 2026. https://home.treasury.gov/news/press-releases/sb0590
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.