Macro
US Consumer Confidence Jumps to 91.7 in October as Gasoline Prices Ease
The Conference Board index rose 7.5 points and beat forecasts, though inflation expectations remain elevated.
By Emmanuel Cruz ·
American consumers turned noticeably more upbeat in October, according to data released on Tuesday morning, a surprise improvement that lands as Federal Reserve officials begin a two-day meeting focused on stubborn inflation.
The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index rose 7.5 points to 91.7, the group said in its release at 10 a.m. ET [1]. The September reading was revised up to 84.2 from the 81.9 first reported [2]. Economists polled by Reuters had expected the index to come in at 81, which means the result topped forecasts by a wide margin [2].
The improvement was broad. The Present Situation Index, which tracks how consumers view current business and job conditions, climbed 8.6 points to 120.4 [1]. The Expectations Index, which measures the outlook for income, business and jobs six months ahead, rose 6.9 points to 72.6 after three straight monthly declines [1]. The labor market differential, the gap between people who say jobs are plentiful and those who say jobs are hard to get, widened by 2.4 percentage points to 5.3% [1].
Fergus McCormick, senior economist at the Conference Board, tied the rebound to cheaper fuel, saying the recovery was "in line with retail gasoline prices easing" between September and October [2]. He also cautioned that the index remained on a long-term downward trend that has persisted for several years [1].
Several details in the report point to continued strain on household budgets. Consumers' expected inflation rate for the next 12 months eased to 5.8% but remained elevated, according to the Conference Board [1]. McCormick said written responses showed consumers still expressed frustration with rising costs, with more mentions of food, grocery, oil and diesel prices [2]. Survey respondents also planned to spend less on services and durable goods over the next six months [1]. The most common answer on the chance of a U.S. recession in the next year was "somewhat likely," a measure that is not part of the index itself [1].
On markets, more consumers expected stock prices to rise than to fall over the coming year [1].
The release matters for markets mainly through its bearing on the Fed. The central bank raised rates last month for the first time in three years, and investors see little chance of another move at this week's meeting, with CME FedWatch data showing hike odds below 10% [3]. The same data put the probability of a December increase at around 80% [3]. A firmer consumer could make it easier for policymakers to argue that the economy can withstand tighter policy, while elevated inflation expectations are the kind of signal central bankers watch closely.
The next test comes quickly. Analysts expect the first estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product to show growth of about 3%, up from 2.2% in the second quarter, according to Schwab [3]. The Fed's rate decision is due on Wednesday, and traders will look for any reference in the statement or press conference to household demand and inflation expectations.
Sources:
[1] The Conference Board via PR Newswire, "US Consumer Confidence Increased in October", October 27, 2026. https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/us-consumer-confidence-increased-in-october-302920731.html
[2] Reuters via Investing.com, "US consumer confidence improves in October", October 27, 2026. https://www.investing.com/news/economic-indicators/us-consumer-confidence-improves-in-october-4976114
[3] Charles Schwab, "Stocks Extend Gains on Firm Earnings, Solid Tech", October 27, 2026. https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/stock-market-update-open
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.