Macro
China Extends Its Trade Truce to Jan. 10 as Trump Heads to Shenzhen for Talks With Xi and a Possible Putin Meeting
The two-month extension pauses rare-earth curbs and a 24% tariff, but US officials say Beijing has not fully delivered on its Busan commitments.
By Noris Ortiz ·
The United States and China have bought themselves two more months of trade calm, but the details of that pause and a crowded diplomatic calendar next week leave plenty open for markets to watch. The next test is the APEC summit in Shenzhen, set for Nov. 18-19, where President Donald Trump expects to meet Chinese President Xi Jinping and possibly Russian President Vladimir Putin [1].
The extension came just ahead of the deadline. According to The National, China suspended export controls on some critical minerals for two months, prolonging a truce that had been due to expire on Tuesday, Nov. 10. China's Ministry of Commerce said the extension runs to Jan. 10, and the finance ministry said a 24% tariff on U.S. goods will be suspended for that period while a 10% charge stays in place [2]. On the American side, the U.S. Trade Representative suspended action from a Section 301 investigation into China's maritime and logistics sectors and extended 178 existing Section 301 tariff exclusions [2].
The stakes are tied to supply chains. The National, citing International Energy Agency data from 2024, said China controls 60% of global mined output of magnet rare earths and 91% of refined output. It added that Beijing imposed curbs on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025 and widened the list in October [2]. The original one-year truce was agreed at a Busan, South Korea, summit last October and paused tit-for-tat tariffs, deferred rare-earth curbs and included a Chinese pledge to resume U.S. soybean purchases [2].
Washington says implementation is incomplete. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged Vice Premier He Lifeng to carry out the Busan commitments fully and immediately, and U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer stressed agricultural purchases, rare earths and critical minerals [2]. The Financial Times reported, as relayed by investingLive, that U.S. officials believe China has delivered only about two-thirds of its commitments, which Beijing disputes. The same report said U.S. officials see the soybean pledge, at least 25 million metric tons a year from 2026 through 2028, as being met [3]. The AP reported that Xinhua described the Greer-He call as constructive while China raised concerns about U.S. restrictive trade measures [4].
The summit itself is less settled. Trump said he expects to meet Xi and Putin and that they would discuss ending the Iran war and denuclearization, according to Reuters [1]. Beijing's foreign ministry said it is in communication with relevant parties about a meeting of the three leaders, the AP reported [4]. Al Jazeera reported that China's foreign ministry has called joining trilateral nuclear disarmament talks "neither fair, reasonable nor realistic" at this stage, and that Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov hoped arrangements would be finalized soon [5]. Analysts quoted by the AP and Al Jazeera described the encounter as possibly more about optics than substance [4][5].
Why it matters: the truce governs tariffs, rare-earth access and agricultural trade that feed into industrial costs, chip supply chains and inflation expectations. A clean extension reduces near-term tariff risk, but the short horizon means the issue returns in January.
What to watch next: whether the Shenzhen meetings produce any commitments on rare earths, purchases or tariffs, whether the U.S. and China agree on a longer extension, and whether the three-way format is confirmed. Markets reopen Monday, just ahead of the summit.
Sources:
[1] Reuters (via the Jefferson City News-Tribune), "Trump thinks he will meet Xi and Putin at China APEC summit", November 9, 2026. https://www.newstribune.com/news/2026/nov/09/trump-thinks-he-will-meet-xi-and-putin-at-china-apec-summit/
[2] The National, "China extends pause on rare earth export curbs for two months", November 9, 2026. https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2026/11/09/china-extends-pause-on-rare-earth-export-curbs-for-two-months/
[3] investingLive, "US presses China to honor Busan trade truce as rare earth shipments fall short", November 6, 2026. https://investinglive.com/news/us-presses-china-to-honor-busan-trade-truce-as-rare-earth-shipments-fall-short/
[4] Associated Press (via The Korea Times), "China confirms discussions underway on historic Xi-Trump-Putin meeting", November 7, 2026. https://www.koreatimes.co.kr/world/20261107/china-confirms-discussions-underway-on-historic-xi-trump-putin-meeting
[5] Al Jazeera, "What a Trump-Xi-Putin summit could mean - and what it wouldn't", November 6, 2026. https://www.aljazeera.com/amp/news/2026/11/6/what-a-trump-xi-putin-summit-would-mean-and-what-it-wouldnt
This article was produced with AI assistance. It is for informational purposes only and is not financial advice. StockVolt and its authors may hold positions in securities mentioned.